Using Panel Data Analysis to Evaluate How Individual Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Affected Traffic in the U.S. during the First Three Months of the COVID Pandemic

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, restrictive non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), with goals of reducing interactions and travel for people in different households, were introduced. U.S., each state had jurisdiction over NPI imposed, resulting myriad decisions. The aggregate impacts these decisions are known; however, individual not fully understood. We disaggregated NPIs imposed during first three months epidemic (1 March 7 June 2020) using panel data regression analysis. Vehicular reduction as a proxy on traffic was regressed against stay-at-home orders, business closures, school gathering bans. results show that closures full non-essential businesses correlated largest vehicle trips compared when they place. Stay-at-home orders about half impact Gathering bans least impact. target most effective traffic. There heterogeneity how responded restrictions. This study can be used epidemiology models inform decision-makers policies work best.